Interactive Tool

Scenario Modeler

Explore geopolitical futures and their impact on technology value chains. Select a scenario to analyse sector-by-sector exposure and cascade effects.

Selected Scenario
Use the dropdown if the scenario cards are awkward on your device.
HIGH FRICTION2026-2028 | Base probability 15-25%

Taiwan Strait Advanced Logic & Packaging Shock

Taiwan blockade, quarantine, or kinetic escalation disrupts leading-edge wafer output, CoWoS packaging, shipping, and insurance

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Optional. Pick another scenario to see both under the same exposure lens, side by side.
Exposure Lens
Adjust the scenario around a specific operating context. This changes the exposure estimate and board brief, not the base geopolitical assumption.
HIGH FRICTION
Taiwan Strait Advanced Logic & Packaging Shock
A Taiwan Strait shock remains the highest-severity technology value-chain scenario. The risk is no longer only front-end wafers: advanced packaging, HBM integration, freight insurance, and customer allocation would all become binding constraints.
Timeframe
2026-2028
Base Probability
15-25%
Trigger Event

Taiwan blockade, quarantine, or kinetic escalation disrupts leading-edge wafer output, CoWoS packaging, shipping, and insurance

Profile-Adjusted Value at Stake

€2398B

Critical exposure lens x1.80

Sector Impact Analysis
Value at stake by sector, adjusted by the selected exposure lens. Hover for details.
Semiconductors€934B
Leading-edge wafers, CoWoS packaging, and foundry allocation become unavailable or politically rationed.
AI/Cloud€467B
Accelerator deliveries stall as logic dies, HBM stacks, and advanced packaging cannot be recombined quickly elsewhere.
Consumer Electronics€431B
Premium phones, laptops, networking gear, and edge devices face immediate allocation pressure.
Automotive€305B
ADAS, infotainment, connectivity, and EV control systems suffer from both chip scarcity and logistics disruption.
Defence€162B
Advanced compute, secure communications, sensing, and weapons-system electronics face priority allocation conflicts.
Medical Devices€99B
Imaging, diagnostics, robotics, and connected-care platforms lose access to specialist components.
Severe
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Board Brief
Decision summary for the selected scenario and exposure lens
First Impact

Foundry allocation freezes on leading-edge logic; orders shift to long lead-time qualified alternates.

90-Day Action

Rank revenue-critical products by Taiwan wafer, packaging, HBM, substrate, and shipping dependency. Treat industrial automation, controls, and power-electronics suppliers as the first ask.

12-Month Hedge

Fund redesigns that can run on qualified mature-node or non-Taiwan packaged alternatives where performance allows.

Escalate When

Persistent Taiwan route insurance repricing, quarantine language, or TSMC allocation restrictions.

Cascade Effects
How the initial shock propagates through the system
Primary

Taiwan logistics and fab output constrained -> advanced logic and packaging allocation freezes

Secondary

AI accelerators, premium electronics, and connected industrial products miss production windows

Tertiary

Governments ration strategic supply -> accelerated allied fabs, stockpiles, and redesign mandates

Early Warning Indicators
Signals to monitor for this scenario
  • PLA blockade rehearsal activity, quarantine language, or persistent grey-zone maritime disruption
  • Shipping, air-cargo, and political-risk insurance repricing around Taiwan routes
  • TSMC customer allocation commentary and advanced-packaging lead-time changes
  • US, Japan, and EU emergency semiconductor-stockpile or export-priority measures
Mitigation Options
Strategic responses to reduce exposure
  • Separate product exposure into wafer, packaging, HBM, substrate, and logistics dependencies
  • Qualify mature-node fallbacks for control systems and non-performance-critical functions
  • Pre-negotiate allocation rights for strategic SKUs and service-level exceptions
  • Build redesign pathways that reduce leading-edge and Taiwan-packaging dependency over 12-24 months
Why This Matters Now
Current assumptions behind this scenario. Confidence: Medium.
Evidence

TSMC reported that 7nm-and-below technologies remained the majority of wafer revenue in 2025, with 2nm entering high-volume manufacturing in Q4 2025.

Implication

Taiwan concentration remains most acute exactly where AI, HPC, and premium electronics demand is growing.

Evidence

Recent AI-chip supply-chain work identifies CoWoS advanced packaging and HBM, not only logic dies, as binding accelerator constraints.

Implication

Scenario impact should model packaging and memory integration, not just foundry wafer starts.